Identification

Title

2023, Marine Spatial Planning Addressing Climate Effects (MSPACE) UK EEZ climate change hotspots/refugia shapefiles

Abstract

These shapefiles show the locations of climate change hotspots and climate change refugia in the UK EEZ, as identified from spatial meta-analysis conducted as part of the Marine Spatial Planning Addressing Climate Effects (MSPACE) program. Analysis was run on selected climate modelling and/or species distribution model outputs relevant to three sectors of interest (conservation, fisheries and aquaculture). We compared a present day reference period (2006-2025) to each possible 20 year time period between 2026 and 2069 (e.g. 2026-2045, 2027-2046, 2028-2047 etc.) under two different GHG emissions scenarios – RCP4.5 (strong curbs in global emissions toward climate change mitigation, from 2050 onwards, leading to a mean global warming by the end of the century of approx 2.4 degrees Celsius) and RCP8.5 (emissions continue to rise steadily throughout the 21st century, leading to mean global warming approx 4.3 degrees Celsius). In this way, we were able to determine whether or not the marine environment, as described by the modelling layers included in the analysis, changes significantly between the reference period and the future period of interest. The analysis method identifies ecosystem-wide climate change signals, allowing the investigation of the effects of climate change as a holistic process that species respond to through changes in species distributions, affecting the activity of sectors that rely on them. This allows for a mapping of the emergence of climate change hotspots (areas where climate driven trends lead these ecosystem components into a new state beyond their natural variability) over space and time, and so indicating areas where the current level of activity of sectors reliant on those species and habitats may no longer be sustainable. Importantly, because planners need to know also about what can be done, not just what will be lost, this methodology also allows the identification of climate change refugia, where the ecosystem underpinning a sector remains in its current state, and thus where current uses may be sustainable. Specific analyses were conducted for each focal sector, and each shapefile corresponds to the results of one of these analyses. In the conservation sector, analyses focused on: pelagic habitats, benthic habitats, megafauna exploiting pelagic habitats, megafauna exploiting benthic habitats and climate services (e.g. carbon sequestration ability of benthic habitats). In the fisheries sector, analyses focused on: pelagic fisheries and benthic/demersal fisheries. In the aquaculture sector, analyses focused on: pelagic aquaculture (activities taking place in the water column such as salmon cages and suspended mussel culture) and benthic aquaculture (activities that take place on the seabed such as oyster trestles).

Resource type

dataset

Resource locator

https://doi.org/10.17031/64e8b1409baf0

name: DOI link

description: A link to the web service or dataset

http://https://www.dassh.ac.uk/

name: DASSH Website

description: A link to the general host site

Unique resource identifier

code

DASSHDT00000524

codeSpace

http://https://www.dassh.ac.uk

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

urn:ogc:def:crs:EPSG::4326

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Keyword set

keyword value

Keyword set

keyword value

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2008-01-06

Keyword set

keyword value

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2009-11-16

Keyword set

keyword value

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

2012-05-02

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

-16.9070

East bounding longitude

4.9540

North bounding latitude

62.9000

South bounding latitude

47.0300

Extent

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

2009-06-18

code identifying the extent

Eastern Channel

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

2009-06-18

code identifying the extent

Western Channel and Celtic Sea

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

2009-06-18

code identifying the extent

Irish Sea

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

2009-06-18

code identifying the extent

Southern North Sea

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

2009-06-18

code identifying the extent

Northern North Sea

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

2009-06-18

code identifying the extent

Minches & Western Scotland

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

2009-06-18

code identifying the extent

Scottish Continental Shelf

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

2009-06-18

code identifying the extent

Rockall Trough & Bank

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

2009-06-18

code identifying the extent

Faroe-Shetland Channel

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

2009-06-18

code identifying the extent

Atlantic North West Approaches

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

1954-01-01

code identifying the extent

Bristol Channel

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

1954-01-01

code identifying the extent

English Channel

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

1954-01-01

code identifying the extent

Inner Seas off the West Coast of Scotland

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

1954-01-01

code identifying the extent

Irish Sea and St. George's Channel

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

1954-01-01

code identifying the extent

North Atlantic Ocean

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

1954-01-01

code identifying the extent

North Sea

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

1954-01-01

code identifying the extent

Norwegian Sea

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

creation

effective date

1954-01-01

code identifying the extent

Celtic Sea

Extent group

authority code

title

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2010-01-01

code identifying the extent

epipelagic water column

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

2006-07-01

End position

2069-12-31

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2023-10-02

date type

revision

effective date

2023-10-02

Frequency of update

notPlanned

Quality and validity

Lineage

Source text files used in the generation of each shapefile are included in the dataset. These text files represent the results of a spatial meta-analysis run on selected climate modelling and/or species distribution model outputs relevant to three sectors of interest (conservation, fisheries and aquaculture). We compared a present day reference period (2006-2025) to each possible 20 year time period between 2026 and 2069 (e.g. 2026-2045, 2027-2046, 2028-2047 etc.) under two different GHG emissions scenarios – RCP4.5 (strong curbs in global emissions toward climate change mitigation, from 2050 onwards, leading to a mean global warming by the end of the century of approx 2.4 degrees Celsius) and RCP8.5 (emissions continue to rise steadily throughout the 21st century, leading to mean global warming approx 4.3 degrees Celsius). The text files contain the lat/lon coordinates of the model domain, and values of –1 (indicating a climate change hotspot), 0 (indicating climate change refugia), or 1 (indicating a climate change bright spot. NB no shapefiles of climate change brightspots were produced as they did not appear consistently across the time periods and emissions scenarios analysed). Co-ordinates of landmasses or areas outside the model domain have a value of NA. To create the shapefiles, the data for each sectoral analysis (pelagic habitats; benthic habitats; megafauna exploiting pelagic habitats; megafauna exploiting benthic habitats; climate services (e.g. carbon sequestration ability of benthic habitats); pelagic fisheries; benthic/demersal fisheries; pelagic aquaculture and benthic aquaculture), for all 20 year time periods between 2026-2069 and both emissions scenarios were plotted (25 plots for each RCP, so 50 plots in total) and stacked together using the magick package in R. Areas consistently identified as refugia (a site that remains climate-resilient within a given period of analysis) or hotspots (a site where climate pressures drive an ecosystem into a new ecosystem state, beyond its natural variability) in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were marked using the draw function in the terra package. The resulting polygons were stored as shapefiles, which summarise the location of climate refugia and climate change hotspots in the UK EEZ up to 2069, across both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The meta-analysis itself used physical biogeochemical modelling data from the POLCOMS-ERSEM model, and species distribution modelling generated by the Size-Spectrum Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (SS-DBEM). Modelling data were originally produced as part of the H2020 program CERES (data are in-line with modelling used within the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and the FP7 program DEVOTES (scenarios consistent with the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). CERES modelling data are all publicly available. DEVOTES modelling data are available on request from Jose Fernandes (AZTI).

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Open access: CC BY

Constraint set

Limitations on public access

Open Access

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

organisation name

Plymouth Marine Laboratory

email address

sat@pml.ac.uk

responsible party role

originator

Responsible party

contact position

Data Manager

organisation name

Data Archive for Seabed Species and Habitats (DASSH)

full postal address

Marine Biological Association of the UK, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill

Plymouth

PL1 2PB

telephone number

01752 633102

facsimile number

01752 633291

email address

dassh.enquiries@mba.ac.uk

responsible party role

custodian

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact

contact position

Merit Scientist

organisation name

Plymouth Marine Laboratory

email address

anqu@pml.ac.uk

responsible party role

pointOfContact

organisation name

Plymouth Marine Laboratory

email address

sat@pml.ac.uk

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata date

2023-10-02

Metadata language