Average Confidence Level of Heat Demand Estimates (500m Grid) - Scotland
The Scotland Heat Map provides estimates of heat demand for all properties in Scotland. To indicate reliability, each estimate is assigned a confidence level from 1 to 5. Level 1 is least reliable and level 5 most. This is mainly determined by the presence of information that would directly impact on heat demand in the estimate’s source data. For example, estimates based on data that includes building type, age and floor area would be more reliable than estimates based solely on floor area derived from mapping data. This raster dataset gives the average (mean) confidence level of properties within 500m x 500m grid squares covering all of Scotland. The Scotland Heat Map is a tool to help plan for the reduction of carbon emissions from heat in buildings. Average confidence level is an indicator of reliability of the heat demand estimates within an area and allows planners to decide whether they meet their needs. The map is produced by the Scottish Government. The most recent version is the Scotland Heat Map 2022, which was released to local authorities in November 2023. More information can be found in the documentation available on the Scottish Government website: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotland-heat-map-documents/
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https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotland-heat-map-documents/
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https://heatmap.data.gov.scot/getows.ashx?ms=mapsources/OGC
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name: conf_500m
description: Heat Demand Confidence 500m Grid
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https://sg-heatmap.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/conf_500m.tiff
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name: Heat Demand Confidence 500m Grid
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SG_HeatDemandConfidenceLevel_500m
www.gov.scot
eng
environment
economy
society
Energy resources
publication
2008-06-01
energy demand
publication
2010-01-13
Energy efficiency
publication
2020-11-18
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publication
2014-04-01
revision
2023-11-20
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The Scotland Heat Map was first created in 2014. It provides estimates of annual heat demand (in kilowatt-hours per year) for every property in Scotland that has a unique property reference number (UPRN). Properties that would not have a demand for heat are excluded. Heat demand is estimated using a range of data sources which can be linked together using the UPRN (unique property reference number). The base dataset which all other information is linked to is Ordnance Survey’s (OS’s) AddressBase Plus product. The most recent version of the map is the Scotland Heat Map 2022, which was released to local authorities in November 2023. Multiple heat demand estimates can be produced for a property if information relating to its demand for heat can be found in more than one data source. Each estimate is assigned a confidence level from 1 to 5, with 5 representing values we have most confidence in and 1 least. This is mainly determined by the presence of information that would directly impact on heat demand in the source data. For example, estimates based on data that includes building type, age and floor area would be more reliable than estimates based solely on floor area derived from OS mapping data. The estimates for each property are overlaid, with those at a lower confidence level being replaced by those at a higher confidence level, where this is possible using available data. This ensures that for each property, demand is based on the most appropriate data available to the Scottish Government. Energy billing data is included for around 8,500 public sector properties in Scotland. This data is assigned confidence level 5. A new method for dealing with the lowest two confidence levels, i.e., levels 1 and 2, was introduced for the 2022 heat map. Previously confidence level 1 used data on property type and floor area sourced entirely from OS mapping information. Confidence level 2 used data on property type, floor area and, for domestic properties only, age sourced entirely from data provided by the Scottish Assessors’ Association (with the exception of a relatively small number of cases where mapping derived floor area was used). Energy benchmarks based on property type and age for domestic properties, and property use for non-domestic properties, were then applied to floor areas calculate heat demand. If information was missing from either source, either a generalised benchmark was applied (i.e., an average across age groups or property types for domestic data) or a heat demand estimate could not be calculated. The new method makes use of both sets of sources (mapping data and Assessors’ data) to provide, where available, the full suite of information required to calculate heat demand. Estimates are assigned to confidence level 1 if all, or the majority, of the information is sourced from mapping data. They are assigned to confidence level 2 if all, or the majority, of the required information is sourced from Assessors’ data. Other changes affecting heat demand estimates in the 2022 heat map include: - Updated versions of Ordnance Survey’s AddressBase Plus, OS MasterMap Topography Layer and Building Heights Attribute, from February/March 2022, are used. - Some changes have been made to how Ordnance Survey classifications are assigned to energy benchmark categories to better exclude properties without a heat demand, and to improve benchmarked estimates for those with demand. - Estimates based on 2013 data from the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) are no longer included. These were previously included at confidence level 4. - Data collected as part of the creation of the Scottish Public Sector Energy Benchmarking Tool 2022, referred to as SEON (Scottish Energy Officers Network) data, has been included at confidence level 5 for the first time. The data sources used for the five confidence levels in the 2022 Scotland Heat Map are as follows: Confidence level 1 – For non-domestic properties, energy benchmarks (industry standard CIBSE TM46 benchmarks in kilowatt-hours per year per meter squared) for various categories of property use are applied to floor areas. Floor area is either calculated using OS mapping information or, for a relatively very small number of properties, taken from Scottish Assessors’ data. Property use is provided by OS mapping information or Assessors’ data, with OS data being the source for the majority. A non-domestic property’s estimate is assigned confidence level 1 if mapping data is the source of its property use category and/or its floor area value. For domestic properties energy benchmarks (in kilowatt-hours per year per meter squared) derived from Scottish House Condition Survey (SHCS) data for various property types and age bands are applied to floor areas. Floor area is either calculated using OS mapping information or, for a relatively very small number of properties, taken from Scottish Assessors’ data. Property type is provided by OS mapping data or Assessors’ data, with the majority provided by OS mapping data. Age, if available, is provided by mapping data or Assessors’ data. A domestic property’s estimate is assigned confidence level 1 if mapping data is the source of at least two out of floor area, property type or property age. Confidence level 2 - information on property type and/or age alongside floor area for domestic properties, and property use and floor area for non-domestic properties is taken from Scottish Assessors data. CIBSE TM46 energy benchmarks are applied to non-domestic properties and a set of benchmarks derived using data from the Scottish House Condition Survey (SHCS) is used for domestic properties. For domestic properties, in some cases where property type, floor area or age is not available from Assessors’ data, mapping derived values are used. At least two out of the three must come from Assessors’ data for a domestic property’s estimate to be assigned to confidence level 2. For non-domestic properties, both property use category and floor area are provided by Assessors’ data. Confidence level 3 – the Energy Savings Trust’s Home Analytics dataset includes a heat demand value for every domestic property in Scotland. This confidence level comprises properties from Home Analytics which do not have an energy performance certificate (EPC). Their demand for heat is obtained through a series of models based on information that would be gathered in an EPC. In this case, demand for heat is based on more detailed physical characteristics than those available at confidence level 2. Confidence level 4 – EPCs give modelled heat demand values for both domestic and non-domestic properties, although each sector uses a different model. As EPCs use an inspection of a property to determine the physical characteristics needed to model heat demand, they are considered more reliable than modelled records in Home Analytics. Confidence level 5 – energy billing data has been provided by several Scottish councils for their properties. Information on the procurement of natural gas for public sector buildings has been provided by the Scottish Government (this includes information for non-Scottish Government buildings). Data collected as part of the creation of the Scottish Public Sector Energy Benchmarking Tool 2022, referred to as SEON (Scottish Energy Officers Network) data, has also been included. Together these sources provide data on actual consumption and therefore are considered to be the most reliable. In the 2022 heat map, the following number of properties were assigned each confidence level: Confidence level 1 – 97,449 Confidence level 2 – 83,037 Confidence level 3 – 1,318,617 Confidence level 4 – 1,455,544 Confidence level 5 – 8,495 Total number of properties with a heat demand estimate – 2,963,142. The confidence level raster datasets give the average (mean) confidence of the heat demand estimates for all properties in a given size of grid square. This is calculated by dividing the sum of the confidence level for each property in the square which has a heat demand by the total number of such properties. The average confidence level is intended as a rough indication of the overall reliability of the total heat demand estimate for each gird square. The Scotland Heat Map 2022 (released in November 2023) incorporated a number of changes to the heat demand methodology when compared with earlier releases. Some of these are described above. More information on the changes, as well as a detailed description of the heat demand methodology and an overview of other data included in the map, can be found in the Scotland Heat Map 2022 User Guide at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotland-heat-map-documents/
publication
2010-12-08
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WMS
1.3.0
Available under the terms of the Open Government Licence. The following attribution statement must be used to acknowledge the source of the information: Copyright Scottish Government, contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right (insert year).
Heat Data Analyst
Scottish Government
5 Atlantic Quay, 150 Broomielaw
Glasgow
G2 8LU
United Kingdom
protocol: WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link
pointOfContact
GIS Analyst
Scottish Government
Victoria Quay
Edinburgh
EH6 6QQ
United Kingdom
protocol: WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link
pointOfContact
2024-03-25T16:09:32