Sub-regional Pupil Projections

Published by:
Greater London Authority
Last updated:
24 June 2026
Topic:
Not added
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None

Summary

This page contains input data sources and output projections for the Sub-regional Pupil Projections.The input data sources provided on this page are the school numbers data from the school census, at school-level, Local Authority level, and Subregion level (ITL Level 2). The births data used for these projections can be found here.The output projections are at Subregion, Region, and England level. They provide ten-year projections from the most recent academic year of available School Census data, and cover National Curriculum Years from Reception up to Year 11. The main variables of the dataset are explained below. itl22cd & itl22nm: The geography names and codes. Most geographical areas in the datasets are ITL Level 2 Subregions, but the dataset also contains ITL Level 1 Regions and England in total. acdyear & year: The academic year in question in yyyy/yyyy format, and a single numeric year variable corresponding to the first year in the academic year. schoolstage, ncyear, ncyearnumber: ncyear is the National Curriculum Year from Reception to Year 11, and ncyearnumber is a numeric variable with 0 corresponding to Reception, 1 corresponding to Year 1, etc. schoolstage is whether the NC year is Primary or Secondary. meanprojection, upperpi, lowerpi: These are the central forecast for the quantity in question, the upper 95% prediction interval, and the lower 95% prediction interval. This dataset is new and experimental, and in the short-term the exact figures published may be subject to minor changes as we continue to make revisions.

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Data links

Link to the data Format File added Data preview
model_inputs_for_datastore.zip N/A 24 June 2026 Not available
Methodology overview for Subregional Pupil Projections.pdf N/A 24 June 2026 Not available
subregion_level_pupil_numbers_1112_to_2425.csv N/A 24 June 2026 Not available
gla_subregional_pupil_projections_2024_2033.csv N/A 24 June 2026 Not available
gla_subregional_pupil_projections_2025_2034.csv N/A 24 June 2026 Not available

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