The dataset contains outputs from Aim 1 in Bluemel et al. 2024 - Biodiversity
patterns under a shifting baseline: important areas for sensitive fish species
and ecosystem functioning to assist marine spatial planning (see attached),
Cefas Project Report for Defra, 40 pp. The dataset includes regional
core-areas (persistent areas of high fish population density) and projected
spatial changes in the distribution of sensitive fish species (currently and
under future environmental change) for nine focal species, including the
common skate complex (Dipturus spp.), spurdog (Squalus acanthias), tope
(Galeorhinus galeus), spotted ray (Raja montagui), undulate ray (Raja
undulata), starry ray (Amblyraja radiata), John Dory (Zeus faber), Atlantic
wolffish (Anarhichas lupus) and Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus).
Historic core areas / home ranges: vectors of historic core-areas (persistent
areas of high fish population density) and home ranges of the nine focal
species derived from standardised trawl data (survey catch-rates expressed in
terms of biomass per area swept by the trawl, kg.km2) from long-term
fishery-independent monitoring programmes (Lynam & Ribeiro 2022a). Where
available, core areas were defined for each decade (1985 – 1994; 1995 – 2004;
2005 – 2014) where 50% of the population’s kernel density was concentrated.
Similarly, the species range was defined as the areas containing 95% of the
population’s kernel density. NB, there are no historic core areas available
for tope.
Species distributions: contains gridded rasters of the raw predicted habitat
suitability projections from the Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART,
Chipman et al., 2010) modeling algorithm for the nine fish species for the
model training/current day period 2005 – 2014 ('Training') and expected
habitat suitability for a species given future environmental conditions in
2050 (climate projection representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5
(medium emissions, high mitigation)) ('RCP4.5_2050').
Current core areas: contains vectors of current core-areas of the nine focal
species derived from the expected habitat, based on a novel thresholding
approach tailored to the projections of each species distribution model (SDM)
by outcomes from the spatial analysis of survey-derived biomass.
Future core areas under rcp4.5 emissions scenario in 2050: contains vectors of
future core-areas of the nine focal species derived from the expected habitat,
based on a novel thresholding approach tailored to the projections of each SDM
by outcomes from the spatial analysis of survey-derived biomass. NB, no future
core area is predicted for starry ray under this emissions scenario.
The spatial reference for all data is WGS84/UTM zone 30N (EPSG:32630)
