Analysis of the labour market covering the latest developments. The latest labour market bulletin from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) points to a tepid but stabilising labour market in London. Key indicators continue to underperform the rest of the UK, but the pace of decline appears to be slowing. On a quarterly basis, the employment and unemployment rates have both declined, while the inactivity rate has risen. This may suggest that the decline in the unemployment rate is being driven by people leaving the labour force and becoming inactive. However, the ONS urges caution when interpreting short-term movements, given the data volatility issue in the Labour Force Survey. The more timely PAYE estimates point to a continuation of the downward trend of the last 18 months. Compared with a year ago, the largest losses are concentrated in hospitality, information and communication, and construction. On pay, London workers are still experiencing real (inflation-adjusted) wage growth, although this might be a composition effect as low-paid industries reduce employment. The other highly-timely indicator, job posting data, points to a subdued but stable labour market. Monthly new job posting volumes have fluctuated around roughly 100,000–120,000 this year, rather than showing a persistent downward trend. Overall, London’s labour market remains weak with indicators suggesting it is stabilising at a lower level of activity. When using outputs from this analysis you should be aware of the following caveats: The analysis is not intended to be comprehensive or exhaustive. It is a snapshot analysis of key data as it pertains to London. The analysis does not represent the full body of evidence on which Mayoral Policies are, or will be, based. We advise that our outputs are triangulated with other sources of information and analysis to develop a rounded statistical picture of any specific policy issues.
